Well a quick trawl through an old BOU checklist (a year 2000 one with annoying names like Hedge Accentor and Little Plover) and I reckon that without breaking too much sweat there are 138 species that should easily appear in the village this coming year.
There is a saying that I like - "Eagles may fly high, but weasels don't get sucked in to jet engines". This predicted list very much falls on the side of the weasel. I have only allowed for one diver and one scarce grebe, for example. Duck-wise, Scaup should make a show, but I have held fire on Long-tailed Duck even though there is one hanging around on the estuary presently. All the sawbills have shown up over the last couple of years, so I have stuck my neck out for the same in 2013.
I have yet to see Osprey in Stutton, even though they are annual around here. Peregrine and Hobby are on the list, but Merlin is a long-shot. The only real hope of Hen Harrier will be down at Stutton Mill on the parish boundary with Brantham.
Grey Partridge - forget it.
All the waders should be in the bag by 2nd January, with the exception of the migrant species. Little Stint, Curlew Sandpiper, Spotted Redshank and Wood Sandpiper are never the easiest on the whole estuary, let alone just in Stutton. LRP should fall and I hope that a Whimbrel or two will announce their presence. The only BB rare wader on the estuary in my time was the '06 Long-billed Dowitcher.
I haven't seen a phalarope or skua here in ten years and white-winged gulls are also gloriously absent. But there lies the challenge. Writing this, really does sharpen the focus. It makes me want to get out there now and scan that small gathering of gulls in the middle of the reservoir (if it was light of course) that I have been studiously ignoring recently. I would settle for a Franklin's mind.
The White-winged Black Tern that appeared this autumn was a bonus tern and I confess that I did twitch it (shame on me, but it was in the parish and less than a mile from the house). I am only expecting Common and Little as gimme's.
I have been bold in adding Turtle Dove, as these are now genuinely scarce around here and sadly, I don't think that it will be long before Cuckoo is pencilled rather than penned on to the list. Unless the local gamekeeper lets me know about a Long-eared Owl roost, the owl sp. list will be an easy three with a possible fourth being Short-eared.
It is when we get to the small stuff, that things get tricky. I still need Ring Ouzel and Stonechat for the village and even Wheatear won't come easy. I am struggling to think how I will connect with Willow or Garden Warbler and keeping my fingers crossed that Cetti's make one final push to the reedbed down at Stutton Mill. I know they are about half a mile from there.
There won't be any shortage of Nightingales - there were 33 territories around the reservoir this spring, but Nuthatch and Lesser Spotted Woodpecker are in the 'two hopes' category.
A shrike would be a chance find. There was an October Great Grey Shrike in 2010, but the only Red-backed was further east at Erwarton a few years before then.
Tree Sparrows have been wintering for the last couple of years and I have boldly decided to put them on my weasel list. Whilst that would be great to see, the chance of a Corn Bunting is up there with the Eagles.
This is a great invention. If you are a birder/twitcher reading this, get a patch sorted out and get signed up. Most importantly, get all your records on Birdtrack. It is the simplest way that your observations can help with the conservation of those birds that have brought you so much joy yesterday, today and for the rest of your life.
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